Projections of ICU need by Country
Modeling current and future ICU demand.
by artdgn
Warning: This dashboard contains the results of a predictive model that was not built by an epidemiologist.
Note: Click a country name to open a search results page for that country’s COVID-19 news.
Based on data up to: 2021-01-23
World map (interactive)
Hover mouse over map for detailed information.
- Details of estimation and prediction calculations are in Appendix and in Tables, as well as Plots of model predictions.
- Recent cases and Recent deaths refer to cases or deaths in the last 5 days.
Tip: Select columns to show on map to from the dropdown menus. The map is zoomable and draggable.
Tables
Projected need for ICU beds
Countries sorted by current estimated need, split into Growing and Recovering countries by current transmission rate. Only for countries with ICU need higher than 0.1 beds per 100k. More details in Appendix.
| Estimated current ICU need per 100k population | Estimated daily transmission rate | Projected ICU need per 100k In 14 days | Projected ICU need per 100k In 30 days | Pre-COVID ICU capacity per 100k | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇸🇮 Slovenia | 17.19 | 5.8% ± 0.6% | 16.3 ± 1.1 | 14.8 ± 1.9 | 6.4 |
| 🇨🇿 Czechia | 15.01 | 5.3% ± 0.6% | 13.5 ± 0.8 | 11.7 ± 1.5 | 11.6 |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 14.77 | 9.3% ± 1.1% | 21.9 ± 2.9 | 32.4 ± 7.8 | 4.2 |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 12.09 | 5.1% ± 0.4% | 10.5 ± 0.5 | 8.8 ± 0.8 | 6.6 |
| 🇱🇻 Latvia | 8.56 | 5.8% ± 0.6% | 8.9 ± 0.7 | 9.2 ± 1.5 | 9.7 |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 8.43 | noisy data | 9.7 ± 4.3 | noisy data | 9.7 |
| 🇱🇹 Lithuania | 8.06 | noisy data | 8.2 ± 3.7 | noisy data | 15.5 |
| 🇵🇦 Panama | 7.94 | 5.7% ± 0.3% | 6.5 ± 0.2 | 5.0 ± 0.3 | - |
| 🇸🇰 Slovakia | 7.86 | 5.5% ± 1.1% | 7.8 ± 1.1 | 7.7 ± 2.2 | 9.2 |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 7.85 | 12.6% ± 0.8% | 9.5 ± 0.5 | 10.5 ± 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 🇲🇪 Montenegro | 7.80 | 5.7% ± 0.5% | 7.1 ± 0.4 | 6.2 ± 0.7 | - |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 7.74 | 6.1% ± 0.5% | 6.4 ± 0.3 | 4.9 ± 0.4 | - |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia | 7.18 | 5.9% ± 1.6% | 7.0 ± 1.2 | 6.6 ± 2.4 | - |
| 🇺🇸 US | 6.96 | 5.6% ± 0.3% | 6.2 ± 0.2 | 5.4 ± 0.3 | 34.7 |
| Eswatini | 6.24 | 10.4% ± 3.8% | 7.9 ± 2.5 | 8.7 ± 4.0 | - |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | 6.24 | 7.5% ± 0.5% | 6.1 ± 0.3 | 5.7 ± 0.5 | - |
| 🇫🇷 France | 6.01 | 8.2% ± 0.5% | 7.7 ± 0.4 | 10.1 ± 1.2 | 11.6 |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 5.92 | 5.2% ± 0.5% | 5.5 ± 0.4 | 5.0 ± 0.7 | 12.5 |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | 5.81 | 5.0% ± 1.4% | 5.3 ± 0.9 | 4.7 ± 1.7 | - |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 5.19 | 7.7% ± 1.6% | 6.0 ± 1.0 | 6.9 ± 2.5 | 15.9 |
| 🇲🇹 Malta | 4.80 | 5.2% ± 1.0% | 4.7 ± 0.6 | 4.6 ± 1.3 | - |
| 🇲🇰 North Macedonia | 4.72 | 5.1% ± 2.0% | 4.0 ± 0.8 | 3.2 ± 1.4 | - |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 4.66 | 5.6% ± 2.6% | 4.8 ± 1.7 | noisy data | 29.2 |
| 🇱🇧 Lebanon | 4.63 | 6.3% ± 0.8% | 4.9 ± 0.4 | 5.1 ± 0.9 | - |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 4.52 | 6.2% ± 0.9% | 4.3 ± 0.4 | 4.0 ± 0.8 | - |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | 4.22 | 5.4% ± 0.7% | 4.2 ± 0.4 | 4.2 ± 0.8 | 21.8 |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 4.01 | 9.0% ± 0.4% | 4.3 ± 0.1 | 4.5 ± 0.3 | - |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | 3.95 | 6.1% ± 0.8% | 3.9 ± 0.4 | 3.9 ± 0.8 | - |
| 🇧🇴 Bolivia | 3.74 | 7.6% ± 1.4% | 4.0 ± 0.6 | 4.2 ± 1.2 | - |
| 🇦🇱 Albania | 3.30 | 5.4% ± 0.3% | 3.2 ± 0.1 | 3.1 ± 0.3 | - |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | 2.59 | noisy data | 2.8 ± 1.1 | noisy data | - |
| 🇲🇩 Moldova | 2.55 | 5.4% ± 1.0% | 2.3 ± 0.2 | 2.0 ± 0.5 | - |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay | 2.32 | 5.2% ± 1.2% | 2.4 ± 0.4 | 2.4 ± 0.8 | - |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay | 2.13 | 5.7% ± 1.0% | 2.1 ± 0.2 | 2.0 ± 0.5 | - |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | 2.09 | 5.1% ± 0.1% | 1.6 ± 0.0 | 1.2 ± 0.0 | 4.6 |
| 🇰🇲 Comoros | 2.04 | noisy data | noisy data | noisy data | - |
| 🇸🇷 Suriname | 2.02 | 5.5% ± 1.1% | 2.0 ± 0.3 | 2.0 ± 0.6 | - |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador | 1.69 | 8.1% ± 2.6% | 1.8 ± 0.4 | noisy data | - |
| 🇬🇹 Guatemala | 1.44 | 8.0% ± 1.7% | 1.7 ± 0.3 | 2.2 ± 0.9 | - |
| 🇭🇳 Honduras | 1.42 | 8.0% ± 0.9% | 1.7 ± 0.2 | 2.0 ± 0.4 | - |
| 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | 1.35 | 6.2% ± 1.6% | 1.5 ± 0.3 | 1.7 ± 0.7 | - |
| 🇱🇾 Libya | 1.24 | noisy data | 1.2 ± 0.4 | noisy data | - |
| 🇬🇾 Guyana | 1.12 | 7.4% ± 2.7% | 1.4 ± 0.5 | noisy data | - |
| 🇲🇼 Malawi | 1.11 | 14.5% ± 2.5% | 4.0 ± 1.3 | 11.7 ± 5.1 | - |
| 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde | 1.00 | 5.7% ± 1.7% | 1.0 ± 0.2 | 1.0 ± 0.5 | - |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 0.94 | 6.1% ± 0.5% | 1.0 ± 0.1 | 1.2 ± 0.2 | 2.7 |
| 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | 0.56 | 7.0% ± 1.0% | 0.7 ± 0.1 | 0.9 ± 0.2 | 21.3 |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | 0.54 | 6.3% ± 1.8% | 0.6 ± 0.1 | 0.7 ± 0.3 | - |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 0.54 | 5.3% ± 0.4% | 0.6 ± 0.0 | 0.6 ± 0.1 | 7.3 |
| 🇿🇲 Zambia | 0.52 | 10.4% ± 1.6% | 1.0 ± 0.3 | noisy data | - |
| 🇯🇲 Jamaica | 0.44 | noisy data | noisy data | noisy data | - |
| 🇫🇮 Finland | 0.44 | 5.9% ± 1.3% | 0.5 ± 0.1 | 0.6 ± 0.2 | 6.1 |
| 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic | 0.42 | 6.6% ± 0.4% | 0.5 ± 0.0 | 0.5 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines | 0.30 | 5.5% ± 0.8% | 0.3 ± 0.0 | 0.3 ± 0.1 | 2.2 |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | 0.28 | 6.6% ± 1.2% | 0.3 ± 0.1 | 0.4 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇲🇻 Maldives | 0.27 | 6.2% ± 1.1% | 0.3 ± 0.0 | 0.3 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇨🇺 Cuba | 0.27 | 6.0% ± 1.1% | 0.3 ± 0.0 | 0.4 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇧🇭 Bahrain | 0.26 | noisy data | 0.3 ± 0.1 | noisy data | - |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | 0.26 | 5.4% ± 0.4% | 0.2 ± 0.0 | 0.2 ± 0.0 | - |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia | 0.26 | 6.3% ± 0.6% | 0.3 ± 0.0 | 0.4 ± 0.1 | 3.4 |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 0.22 | 6.7% ± 0.5% | 0.2 ± 0.0 | 0.3 ± 0.0 | 22.8 |
| 🇰🇼 Kuwait | 0.20 | noisy data | noisy data | noisy data | - |
| 🇷🇼 Rwanda | 0.18 | 7.5% ± 1.3% | 0.2 ± 0.0 | 0.4 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇲🇿 Mozambique | 0.15 | 7.8% ± 1.7% | 0.2 ± 0.1 | noisy data | - |
| 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka | 0.14 | 5.6% ± 0.5% | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 0.2 ± 0.0 | 2.3 |
| 🇻🇪 Venezuela | 0.12 | 6.9% ± 2.2% | 0.2 ± 0.0 | noisy data | - |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | 0.11 | 6.1% ± 0.4% | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 0.1 ± 0.0 | - |
| Estimated current ICU need per 100k population | Estimated daily transmission rate | Projected ICU need per 100k In 14 days | Projected ICU need per 100k In 30 days | Pre-COVID ICU capacity per 100k | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 6.04 | 3.1% ± 0.4% | 4.5 ± 0.2 | 3.1 ± 0.3 | 6.5 |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 5.41 | 3.9% ± 1.1% | 4.4 ± 0.6 | 3.4 ± 1.0 | 13.8 |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 5.13 | noisy data | 4.3 ± 1.2 | noisy data | 11.0 |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | 4.87 | 4.9% ± 0.6% | 4.4 ± 0.3 | 3.9 ± 0.7 | 6.9 |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia | 4.87 | 3.9% ± 0.8% | 4.0 ± 0.4 | 3.1 ± 0.6 | - |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia | 4.80 | noisy data | 3.9 ± 1.2 | noisy data | - |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 4.47 | noisy data | 3.9 ± 1.3 | noisy data | 5.8 |
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | 3.97 | 4.1% ± 0.9% | 3.3 ± 0.4 | 2.6 ± 0.6 | - |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia | 3.78 | 3.9% ± 1.4% | 3.1 ± 0.5 | 2.3 ± 0.8 | - |
| 🇷🇴 Romania | 3.74 | 4.3% ± 0.2% | 3.1 ± 0.1 | 2.5 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇪🇪 Estonia | 3.58 | 4.8% ± 0.7% | 3.4 ± 0.3 | 3.2 ± 0.7 | 14.6 |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 3.38 | 4.4% ± 0.5% | 2.9 ± 0.2 | 2.4 ± 0.3 | 6.4 |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | 2.96 | 4.5% ± 0.1% | 2.6 ± 0.0 | 2.3 ± 0.1 | 8.3 |
| 🇧🇿 Belize | 2.94 | 3.6% ± 0.6% | 2.0 ± 0.1 | 1.3 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 2.87 | 4.1% ± 0.3% | 2.5 ± 0.1 | 2.0 ± 0.2 | 13.5 |
| 🇱🇺 Luxembourg | 2.60 | noisy data | 2.1 ± 0.8 | noisy data | 24.8 |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | 2.53 | 3.8% ± 0.5% | 2.1 ± 0.1 | 1.6 ± 0.2 | - |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | 2.48 | 4.9% ± 0.3% | 2.4 ± 0.1 | 2.3 ± 0.2 | 6.0 |
| 🇦🇲 Armenia | 2.26 | 4.2% ± 0.9% | 1.8 ± 0.2 | 1.4 ± 0.3 | - |
| 🇷🇸 Serbia | 2.23 | 3.4% ± 0.2% | 1.8 ± 0.0 | 1.3 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇨🇷 Costa Rica | 2.16 | noisy data | 1.8 ± 0.5 | noisy data | - |
| 🇵🇸 West Bank and Gaza | 1.84 | 3.8% ± 0.3% | 1.4 ± 0.0 | 0.9 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark | 1.83 | 3.0% ± 0.3% | 1.4 ± 0.1 | 1.0 ± 0.1 | 6.7 |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 1.59 | 1.5% ± 0.1% | 1.0 ± 0.0 | 0.5 ± 0.0 | 47.1 |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | 1.48 | 3.6% ± 0.6% | 1.1 ± 0.1 | 0.7 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇨🇾 Cyprus | 1.39 | 2.3% ± 0.4% | 1.0 ± 0.0 | 0.6 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇳🇦 Namibia | 1.33 | 4.4% ± 0.7% | 1.2 ± 0.1 | 1.0 ± 0.2 | - |
| 🇸🇻 El Salvador | 1.24 | noisy data | 1.1 ± 0.4 | noisy data | - |
| 🇧🇾 Belarus | 1.09 | 4.4% ± 0.4% | 1.0 ± 0.1 | 0.9 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇱🇸 Lesotho | 1.06 | noisy data | noisy data | noisy data | - |
| 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | 0.94 | 1.6% ± 0.4% | 0.6 ± 0.0 | 0.3 ± 0.0 | - |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | 0.57 | 4.0% ± 0.4% | 0.5 ± 0.0 | 0.4 ± 0.0 | - |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 0.54 | 3.4% ± 0.7% | 0.4 ± 0.0 | 0.3 ± 0.1 | 8.0 |
| 🇧🇸 Bahamas | 0.52 | noisy data | 0.4 ± 0.1 | noisy data | - |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt | 0.47 | 3.8% ± 0.4% | 0.4 ± 0.0 | 0.3 ± 0.0 | - |
| 🇧🇼 Botswana | 0.42 | noisy data | noisy data | noisy data | - |
| 🇸🇾 Syria | 0.40 | 4.3% ± 0.3% | 0.4 ± 0.0 | 0.3 ± 0.0 | - |
| 🇲🇷 Mauritania | 0.30 | noisy data | 0.2 ± 0.0 | 0.1 ± 0.1 | - |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan | 0.22 | 3.8% ± 0.5% | 0.2 ± 0.0 | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 1.5 |
| 🇲🇲 Burma | 0.21 | 3.4% ± 0.2% | 0.2 ± 0.0 | 0.1 ± 0.0 | - |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 0.18 | 3.4% ± 0.2% | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 10.6 |
| 🇦🇫 Afghanistan | 0.18 | 3.9% ± 1.0% | 0.2 ± 0.0 | 0.1 ± 0.0 | - |
| 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago | 0.18 | 3.9% ± 1.8% | 0.2 ± 0.0 | noisy data | - |
| 🇮🇸 Iceland | 0.15 | noisy data | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 0.0 ± 0.0 | 9.1 |
| 🇴🇲 Oman | 0.13 | noisy data | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 0.0 ± 0.0 | 14.6 |
| 🇮🇳 India | 0.13 | 3.9% ± 0.1% | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 5.2 |
| 🇳🇵 Nepal | 0.13 | 3.9% ± 0.5% | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 2.8 |
| 🇸🇩 Sudan | 0.13 | 0.0% ± 0.0% | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 0.0 ± 0.0 | - |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria | 0.12 | 3.3% ± 0.1% | 0.1 ± 0.0 | 0.1 ± 0.0 | - |