Warning: This dashboard contains the results of a predictive model that was not built by an epidemiologist.

Note: Click a country name to open a search results page for that country’s COVID-19 news.

Based on data up to: 2021-01-23

World map (interactive)

Hover mouse over map for detailed information.

Tip: Select columns to show on map to from the dropdown menus. The map is zoomable and draggable.

Tables

Projected need for ICU beds

Countries sorted by current estimated need, split into Growing and Recovering countries by current transmission rate. Only for countries with ICU need higher than 0.1 beds per 100k. More details in Appendix.

Growing countries (transmission rate above 5%)

Estimated
current
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Projected
ICU need
per 100k
In 14 days		 Projected
ICU need
per 100k
In 30 days		 Pre-COVID
ICU
capacity
per 100k
🇸🇮 Slovenia 17.19 5.8% ± 0.6% 16.3 ± 1.1 14.8 ± 1.9 6.4
🇨🇿 Czechia 15.01 5.3% ± 0.6% 13.5 ± 0.8 11.7 ± 1.5 11.6
🇵🇹 Portugal 14.77 9.3% ± 1.1% 21.9 ± 2.9 32.4 ± 7.8 4.2
🇬🇧 United Kingdom 12.09 5.1% ± 0.4% 10.5 ± 0.5 8.8 ± 0.8 6.6
🇱🇻 Latvia 8.56 5.8% ± 0.6% 8.9 ± 0.7 9.2 ± 1.5 9.7
🇪🇸 Spain 8.43 noisy data 9.7 ± 4.3 noisy data 9.7
🇱🇹 Lithuania 8.06 noisy data 8.2 ± 3.7 noisy data 15.5
🇵🇦 Panama 7.94 5.7% ± 0.3% 6.5 ± 0.2 5.0 ± 0.3 -
🇸🇰 Slovakia 7.86 5.5% ± 1.1% 7.8 ± 1.1 7.7 ± 2.2 9.2
🇲🇽 Mexico 7.85 12.6% ± 0.8% 9.5 ± 0.5 10.5 ± 0.9 1.2
🇲🇪 Montenegro 7.80 5.7% ± 0.5% 7.1 ± 0.4 6.2 ± 0.7 -
🇿🇦 South Africa 7.74 6.1% ± 0.5% 6.4 ± 0.3 4.9 ± 0.4 -
🇹🇳 Tunisia 7.18 5.9% ± 1.6% 7.0 ± 1.2 6.6 ± 2.4 -
🇺🇸 US 6.96 5.6% ± 0.3% 6.2 ± 0.2 5.4 ± 0.3 34.7
Eswatini 6.24 10.4% ± 3.8% 7.9 ± 2.5 8.7 ± 4.0 -
🇨🇴 Colombia 6.24 7.5% ± 0.5% 6.1 ± 0.3 5.7 ± 0.5 -
🇫🇷 France 6.01 8.2% ± 0.5% 7.7 ± 0.4 10.1 ± 1.2 11.6
🇮🇹 Italy 5.92 5.2% ± 0.5% 5.5 ± 0.4 5.0 ± 0.7 12.5
🇮🇱 Israel 5.81 5.0% ± 1.4% 5.3 ± 0.9 4.7 ± 1.7 -
🇧🇪 Belgium 5.19 7.7% ± 1.6% 6.0 ± 1.0 6.9 ± 2.5 15.9
🇲🇹 Malta 4.80 5.2% ± 1.0% 4.7 ± 0.6 4.6 ± 1.3 -
🇲🇰 North Macedonia 4.72 5.1% ± 2.0% 4.0 ± 0.8 3.2 ± 1.4 -
🇩🇪 Germany 4.66 5.6% ± 2.6% 4.8 ± 1.7 noisy data 29.2
🇱🇧 Lebanon 4.63 6.3% ± 0.8% 4.9 ± 0.4 5.1 ± 0.9 -
🇦🇷 Argentina 4.52 6.2% ± 0.9% 4.3 ± 0.4 4.0 ± 0.8 -
🇦🇹 Austria 4.22 5.4% ± 0.7% 4.2 ± 0.4 4.2 ± 0.8 21.8
🇧🇷 Brazil 4.01 9.0% ± 0.4% 4.3 ± 0.1 4.5 ± 0.3 -
🇨🇱 Chile 3.95 6.1% ± 0.8% 3.9 ± 0.4 3.9 ± 0.8 -
🇧🇴 Bolivia 3.74 7.6% ± 1.4% 4.0 ± 0.6 4.2 ± 1.2 -
🇦🇱 Albania 3.30 5.4% ± 0.3% 3.2 ± 0.1 3.1 ± 0.3 -
🇵🇪 Peru 2.59 noisy data 2.8 ± 1.1 noisy data -
🇲🇩 Moldova 2.55 5.4% ± 1.0% 2.3 ± 0.2 2.0 ± 0.5 -
🇺🇾 Uruguay 2.32 5.2% ± 1.2% 2.4 ± 0.4 2.4 ± 0.8 -
🇵🇾 Paraguay 2.13 5.7% ± 1.0% 2.1 ± 0.2 2.0 ± 0.5 -
🇮🇷 Iran 2.09 5.1% ± 0.1% 1.6 ± 0.0 1.2 ± 0.0 4.6
🇰🇲 Comoros 2.04 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇸🇷 Suriname 2.02 5.5% ± 1.1% 2.0 ± 0.3 2.0 ± 0.6 -
🇪🇨 Ecuador 1.69 8.1% ± 2.6% 1.8 ± 0.4 noisy data -
🇬🇹 Guatemala 1.44 8.0% ± 1.7% 1.7 ± 0.3 2.2 ± 0.9 -
🇭🇳 Honduras 1.42 8.0% ± 0.9% 1.7 ± 0.2 2.0 ± 0.4 -
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe 1.35 6.2% ± 1.6% 1.5 ± 0.3 1.7 ± 0.7 -
🇱🇾 Libya 1.24 noisy data 1.2 ± 0.4 noisy data -
🇬🇾 Guyana 1.12 7.4% ± 2.7% 1.4 ± 0.5 noisy data -
🇲🇼 Malawi 1.11 14.5% ± 2.5% 4.0 ± 1.3 11.7 ± 5.1 -
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde 1.00 5.7% ± 1.7% 1.0 ± 0.2 1.0 ± 0.5 -
🇮🇩 Indonesia 0.94 6.1% ± 0.5% 1.0 ± 0.1 1.2 ± 0.2 2.7
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan 0.56 7.0% ± 1.0% 0.7 ± 0.1 0.9 ± 0.2 21.3
🇦🇪 UAE 0.54 6.3% ± 1.8% 0.6 ± 0.1 0.7 ± 0.3 -
🇯🇵 Japan 0.54 5.3% ± 0.4% 0.6 ± 0.0 0.6 ± 0.1 7.3
🇿🇲 Zambia 0.52 10.4% ± 1.6% 1.0 ± 0.3 noisy data -
🇯🇲 Jamaica 0.44 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇫🇮 Finland 0.44 5.9% ± 1.3% 0.5 ± 0.1 0.6 ± 0.2 6.1
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic 0.42 6.6% ± 0.4% 0.5 ± 0.0 0.5 ± 0.1 -
🇵🇭 Philippines 0.30 5.5% ± 0.8% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.1 2.2
🇸🇳 Senegal 0.28 6.6% ± 1.2% 0.3 ± 0.1 0.4 ± 0.1 -
🇲🇻 Maldives 0.27 6.2% ± 1.1% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.1 -
🇨🇺 Cuba 0.27 6.0% ± 1.1% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.4 ± 0.1 -
🇧🇭 Bahrain 0.26 noisy data 0.3 ± 0.1 noisy data -
🇮🇶 Iraq 0.26 5.4% ± 0.4% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.0 -
🇲🇾 Malaysia 0.26 6.3% ± 0.6% 0.3 ± 0.0 0.4 ± 0.1 3.4
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 0.22 6.7% ± 0.5% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.0 22.8
🇰🇼 Kuwait 0.20 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇷🇼 Rwanda 0.18 7.5% ± 1.3% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.4 ± 0.1 -
🇲🇿 Mozambique 0.15 7.8% ± 1.7% 0.2 ± 0.1 noisy data -
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka 0.14 5.6% ± 0.5% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.2 ± 0.0 2.3
🇻🇪 Venezuela 0.12 6.9% ± 2.2% 0.2 ± 0.0 noisy data -
🇶🇦 Qatar 0.11 6.1% ± 0.4% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 -

Recovering countries (tranmission rate below 5%)

Estimated
current
ICU need
per 100k
population		 Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Projected
ICU need
per 100k
In 14 days		 Projected
ICU need
per 100k
In 30 days		 Pre-COVID
ICU
capacity
per 100k
🇮🇪 Ireland 6.04 3.1% ± 0.4% 4.5 ± 0.2 3.1 ± 0.3 6.5
🇭🇺 Hungary 5.41 3.9% ± 1.1% 4.4 ± 0.6 3.4 ± 1.0 13.8
🇨🇭 Switzerland 5.13 noisy data 4.3 ± 1.2 noisy data 11.0
🇵🇱 Poland 4.87 4.9% ± 0.6% 4.4 ± 0.3 3.9 ± 0.7 6.9
🇭🇷 Croatia 4.87 3.9% ± 0.8% 4.0 ± 0.4 3.1 ± 0.6 -
🇧🇦 Bosnia 4.80 noisy data 3.9 ± 1.2 noisy data -
🇸🇪 Sweden 4.47 noisy data 3.9 ± 1.3 noisy data 5.8
🇧🇬 Bulgaria 3.97 4.1% ± 0.9% 3.3 ± 0.4 2.6 ± 0.6 -
🇬🇪 Georgia 3.78 3.9% ± 1.4% 3.1 ± 0.5 2.3 ± 0.8 -
🇷🇴 Romania 3.74 4.3% ± 0.2% 3.1 ± 0.1 2.5 ± 0.1 -
🇪🇪 Estonia 3.58 4.8% ± 0.7% 3.4 ± 0.3 3.2 ± 0.7 14.6
🇳🇱 Netherlands 3.38 4.4% ± 0.5% 2.9 ± 0.2 2.4 ± 0.3 6.4
🇷🇺 Russia 2.96 4.5% ± 0.1% 2.6 ± 0.0 2.3 ± 0.1 8.3
🇧🇿 Belize 2.94 3.6% ± 0.6% 2.0 ± 0.1 1.3 ± 0.1 -
🇨🇦 Canada 2.87 4.1% ± 0.3% 2.5 ± 0.1 2.0 ± 0.2 13.5
🇱🇺 Luxembourg 2.60 noisy data 2.1 ± 0.8 noisy data 24.8
🇺🇦 Ukraine 2.53 3.8% ± 0.5% 2.1 ± 0.1 1.6 ± 0.2 -
🇬🇷 Greece 2.48 4.9% ± 0.3% 2.4 ± 0.1 2.3 ± 0.2 6.0
🇦🇲 Armenia 2.26 4.2% ± 0.9% 1.8 ± 0.2 1.4 ± 0.3 -
🇷🇸 Serbia 2.23 3.4% ± 0.2% 1.8 ± 0.0 1.3 ± 0.1 -
🇨🇷 Costa Rica 2.16 noisy data 1.8 ± 0.5 noisy data -
🇵🇸 West Bank and Gaza 1.84 3.8% ± 0.3% 1.4 ± 0.0 0.9 ± 0.1 -
🇩🇰 Denmark 1.83 3.0% ± 0.3% 1.4 ± 0.1 1.0 ± 0.1 6.7
🇹🇷 Turkey 1.59 1.5% ± 0.1% 1.0 ± 0.0 0.5 ± 0.0 47.1
🇯🇴 Jordan 1.48 3.6% ± 0.6% 1.1 ± 0.1 0.7 ± 0.1 -
🇨🇾 Cyprus 1.39 2.3% ± 0.4% 1.0 ± 0.0 0.6 ± 0.1 -
🇳🇦 Namibia 1.33 4.4% ± 0.7% 1.2 ± 0.1 1.0 ± 0.2 -
🇸🇻 El Salvador 1.24 noisy data 1.1 ± 0.4 noisy data -
🇧🇾 Belarus 1.09 4.4% ± 0.4% 1.0 ± 0.1 0.9 ± 0.1 -
🇱🇸 Lesotho 1.06 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan 0.94 1.6% ± 0.4% 0.6 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.0 -
🇲🇦 Morocco 0.57 4.0% ± 0.4% 0.5 ± 0.0 0.4 ± 0.0 -
🇳🇴 Norway 0.54 3.4% ± 0.7% 0.4 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.1 8.0
🇧🇸 Bahamas 0.52 noisy data 0.4 ± 0.1 noisy data -
🇪🇬 Egypt 0.47 3.8% ± 0.4% 0.4 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.0 -
🇧🇼 Botswana 0.42 noisy data noisy data noisy data -
🇸🇾 Syria 0.40 4.3% ± 0.3% 0.4 ± 0.0 0.3 ± 0.0 -
🇲🇷 Mauritania 0.30 noisy data 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.1 -
🇵🇰 Pakistan 0.22 3.8% ± 0.5% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 1.5
🇲🇲 Burma 0.21 3.4% ± 0.2% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 -
🇰🇷 South Korea 0.18 3.4% ± 0.2% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 10.6
🇦🇫 Afghanistan 0.18 3.9% ± 1.0% 0.2 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 -
🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago 0.18 3.9% ± 1.8% 0.2 ± 0.0 noisy data -
🇮🇸 Iceland 0.15 noisy data 0.1 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 9.1
🇴🇲 Oman 0.13 noisy data 0.1 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 14.6
🇮🇳 India 0.13 3.9% ± 0.1% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 5.2
🇳🇵 Nepal 0.13 3.9% ± 0.5% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 2.8
🇸🇩 Sudan 0.13 0.0% ± 0.0% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 -
🇩🇿 Algeria 0.12 3.3% ± 0.1% 0.1 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.0 -

Appendix

Interactive plot of model predictions and past data

Tip: Choose a country from the drop-down menu to see the calculations used in the tables above and the dynamics of the model.

Projected Affected Population percentages

Top 20 countries with most estimated recent cases. Sorted by number of estimated recent cases during the last 5 days. More details in Appendix.

Estimated
recent cases
during
last 5 days		 Estimated
total
affected
population
percentage		 Estimated
daily
transmission
rate		 Projected
total
affected
percentage
In 14 days		 Projected
total
affected
percentage
In 30 days		 Current
testing
bias
🇲🇽 Mexico 2,178,380 46.1% 12.6% ± 0.8% 51.9% ± 0.5% 59.3% ± 1.3% 25.9
🇺🇸 US 1,485,770 25.1% 5.6% ± 0.3% 26.4% ± 0.1% 27.9% ± 0.2% 2.0
🇧🇷 Brazil 1,221,206 38.1% 9.0% ± 0.4% 40.1% ± 0.1% 42.5% ± 0.3% 5.0
🇿🇦 South Africa 860,704 39.0% 6.1% ± 0.5% 43.1% ± 0.4% 46.9% ± 0.9% 17.9
🇮🇩 Indonesia 611,812 5.4% 6.1% ± 0.5% 6.2% ± 0.1% 7.2% ± 0.3% 12.2
🇬🇧 United Kingdom 430,804 21.6% 5.1% ± 0.4% 23.5% ± 0.2% 25.4% ± 0.5% 2.9
🇨🇴 Colombia 425,862 34.8% 7.5% ± 0.5% 37.5% ± 0.3% 40.5% ± 0.6% 6.7
🇫🇷 France 290,034 15.4% 8.2% ± 0.5% 17.1% ± 0.2% 19.8% ± 0.6% 3.0
🇮🇳 India 281,919 6.1% 3.9% ± 0.1% 6.2% ± 0.0% 6.3% ± 0.0% 4.8
🇷🇺 Russia 281,727 8.1% 4.5% ± 0.1% 8.7% ± 0.0% 9.3% ± 0.0% 3.3
🇲🇼 Malawi 231,918 4.4% 14.5% ± 2.5% 13.7% ± 3.3% 44.2% ± 16.6% 50.9
🇪🇸 Spain 231,587 19.4% noisy data 21.4% ± 1.5% 24.1% ± 4.9% 1.8
🇮🇷 Iran 216,221 37.4% 5.1% ± 0.1% 38.1% ± 0.0% 38.8% ± 0.0% 8.7
🇩🇪 Germany 213,335 4.6% 5.6% ± 2.6% 5.4% ± 0.6% 6.5% ± 1.7% 3.2
🇦🇷 Argentina 194,358 25.7% 6.2% ± 0.9% 27.1% ± 0.3% 28.8% ± 0.7% 4.6
🇮🇹 Italy 159,760 13.8% 5.2% ± 0.5% 14.6% ± 0.1% 15.5% ± 0.3% 2.9
🇵🇪 Peru 127,195 42.7% noisy data 44.2% ± 1.1% 46.1% ± 3.2% 9.1
🇵🇹 Portugal 123,492 11.6% 9.3% ± 1.1% 16.4% ± 0.9% 24.5% ± 3.2% 2.1
🇵🇱 Poland 116,354 12.1% 4.9% ± 0.6% 13.0% ± 0.2% 14.0% ± 0.4% 4.3
🇹🇳 Tunisia 111,239 16.9% 5.9% ± 1.6% 20.1% ± 1.2% 23.7% ± 3.0% 10.3

Methodology

  • I'm not an epidemiologist. This is an attempt to understand what's happening, and what the future looks like if current trends remain unchanged.
  • Everything is approximated and depends heavily on underlying assumptions.
  • Projection is done using a simple SIR model (see examples) combined with the approach in Total Outstanding Cases:
    • Growth rate is calculated over the 5 past days by averaging the daily growth rates.
    • Confidence bounds are calculated by from the weighted standard deviation of the growth rate over the last 5 days. Model predictions are calculated for growth rates within 1 STD of the weighted mean. The maximum and minimum values for each day are used as confidence bands.
    • Transmission rate, and its STD are calculated from growth rate and its STD using active cases estimation mentioned above.
    • For projections (into future) very noisy projections (with broad confidence bounds) are not shown in the tables.
    • Where the rate estimated from Total Outstanding Cases is too high (on down-slopes) recovery probability if 1/20 is used (equivalent 20 days to recover).
  • Total cases are estimated from the reported deaths for each country:
    • Each country has a different testing policy and capacity and cases are under-reported in some countries. Using an estimated IFR (fatality rate) we can estimate the number of cases some time ago by using the total deaths until today.
    • IFRs for each country is estimated using the age adjusted IFRs from International IFRS study and UN demographic data for 2020. These IFRs can be found in df['age_adjusted_ifr'] column.
    • The average fatality lag is assumed to be 8 days on average for a case to go from being confirmed positive (after incubation + testing lag) to death. This is the same figure used by "Estimating The Infected Population From Deaths".
    • Testing bias adjustment: the actual lagged case fatality rate is then divided by the age adjusted IFR to estimate the testing bias in a country. To account for testing bias changes (e.g. increased testing capacity) this is done on a rolling window basis of two months (with at least 300 deaths). The estimated testing bias then multiplies the reported case numbers for each date to estimate the true case numbers (=case numbers that would be consistent with the deaths and the age adjusted IFR).
  • ICU need is calculated and age-adjusted as follows:
    • UK ICU ratio was reported as 4.4% of active reported cases.
    • Using UKs ICU ratio, UK's testing bias, and IFRs corrected for age demographics we can estimate each country's ICU ratio (the number of cases requiring ICU hospitalisation).
    • Active cases for ICU estimation are taken from the SIR model.
    • Pre COVID-19 ICU capacities are from Wikipedia (OECD countries mostly) and CCB capacities in Asia. The current capacities are likely much higher as some countries already doubled or even quadrupled their ICU capacities.